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Yesterday, I wrote about a new abstraction that indicates that free-floating planets in the Milky Way may outnumber planets orbiting stars, and alike be added abundant than stars themselves. It’s an amazing result! The best acceptable book is that these planets formed in solar systems agnate to ours, but got ejected due to gravitational interactions with added planets in the system. These planets get absolutely tossed out into space, abnormality the galaxy forever*.

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This fabricated me wonder: if these numbers are correct, how acceptable is it that such a rogue planet ability absolutely be abutting by on a catholic scale? And accustomed the affectionate of affair I like to abode about, are we in any crisis from a abutting appointment with one of these galactic nomads?

These abnormality planets are so aphotic and abroad they are currently about absurd to ascertain application approved techniques, so we don’t apperceive if any are in our galactic adjacency or not. The abandoned way to get a anchor on how abutting one ability be is to attending at it in a statistical sense: on boilerplate in the galaxy, how abounding of these planets are there per cubic ablaze year of space? Again we can dabble with the cardinal a bit to see how far abroad one of these planets could be.

Let me be bright up advanced about something. No agnosticism there will be bodies who may appetite to affirmation these rogue planets ability explain Nibiru or Planet X or the Mayan apocalypse. These bodies are amiss (again, and as usual). As you’ll see, the algebraic absolutely does not abutment such a affirmation at all. So if you apprehend addition talking doomsday, accelerate ’em here.

And I ability as able-bodied abode the TL;DR crowd: the abstracts I draw actuality are that a) on average, a rogue planet may be afterpiece than I would’ve initially guessed, but 2) not about abutting abundant to be a affair in any way.

OK then, got it? Onward to the math!

Crank up the volume

Basically, all we charge to do is booty the cardinal of rogue planets in the galaxy and bisect it by the aggregate of the galaxy, and that gives us the body of these planets in space: how abounding there are in a cube a ablaze year on a side. If the acknowledgment is, say, 1 again we apprehend to accept one rogue planet central a one-light-year-wide cube centered on the Sun. So let’s see what the algebraic tells us.

First, there are a lot of rogue planets. In the study, they say there are actual almost as abounding of them as there are stars in the Milky Way. Let’s alarm it 200 billion.

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Second, the aggregate of the galaxy isn’t adamantine to estimate. I’ve done it before, and the capacity are there if you appetite them. Let me cut to the chase: the Milky Way has a aggregate of almost 2 x 1013 cubic ablaze years: that’s 20 abundance cubic ablaze years!

That’s a lot, too. Dividing them to acquisition the density, we get:

2 x 1011 planets / 2 x 1013 cubic ablaze years = 0.01 planets per cubic ablaze year

In added words, We’d apprehend to acquisition one of these abnormality planets in a aggregate of amplitude encompassing 100 cubic ablaze years. That’s a cube about 4.6 ablaze years on a ancillary (or, if you prefer, a apple about 3 ablaze years in radius).

Hey, wow, delay a second: The abutting star, the Alpha Centauri amateur star, is about 4.3 ablaze years away. That agency there’s a appealing acceptable adventitious that, statistically speaking, there may be one of these rogue planets afterpiece to us than the abutting star!

That’s absolutely absolutely abominable to me. Seriously: wow. I’ve generally wondered if we’d anytime acquisition a amber dwarf — a faint, “failed” brilliant — afterpiece than Alpha Cen, but it never occurred to me there ability be a planet afterpiece by! That’s appealing cool.

Stranger planet danger

OK then. Are we in any crisis from these puppies? Could one canyon abutting abundant to us to account earthquakes, say?

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No! And I beggarly categorically, no. 100 cubic ablaze years is a vast, mind-numbing aggregate of space: about 1041 cubic kilometers! That’s a huge bulk of absolute acreage to apparatus about in. Alike if a planet got as abutting as a ablaze year abroad — ten abundance kilometers, or 6 abundance afar — the aftereffect on us would be about nothing.

Remember, we’re talking about planets with about the aforementioned accumulation as Jupiter. Our Jupiter gets as abutting as about 600 actor kilometers from Earth. The Moon itself has no abundant aftereffect on earthquakes, and at best Jupiter’s aftereffect is a tiny atom of that. A planet ten thousand times further abroad than Jupiter may as able-bodied not abide as far as gravitational furnishings are concerned.

Oh comets, area Oort thou?

So we’re safe from absolute problems. What about aberrant ones?

Out way accomplished Neptune is a citizenry of icy bodies that, back they abatement against the Sun, about-face into comets. There may be a abundance of these guys aural a ablaze year or so from the Sun, in a arena alleged the Oort cloud. Could a rogue planet dislodge a agglomeration of these and bead them against us, triggering impacts and a accumulation extinction?

In a word, no. Again, the aggregate of amplitude we’re talking about actuality is staggering. Alike a abundance comets advance out over that bulk of amplitude makes things appealing attenuate out there; on boilerplate those altar are a billion kilometers apart. The allowance of a planet accepting abutting abundant to dislodge alike a distinct Oort billow article is appealing small. And alike if it did, it’s abandoned one comet! The allowance of it hitting the Earth are alike teenier. We’re a appealing baby ambition in a accomplished lot of solar system.

And let’s accept a acumen check: if this were a absolute danger, we’d see affirmation of it in the deposit record. A planet-wide battery of behemothic comets — alike from a distinct big comet — in contempo geological history would be adamantine to miss. We don’t see it, accordingly this isn’t a danger.

I’m not adage asteroid and/or comet impacts aren’t a crisis at all, aloof that ones triggered by a rogue planet whizzing accomplished us is abundantly small. We charge to booty impacts actively in general, no amount what the cause. But in this case, interstellar planets accomplishing the accomplishment accurately aren’t a worry.

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You can breathe easy

These after-effects both abruptness and don’t abruptness me. I’m actual abundant afraid that one of these interstellar nomads could be afterpiece than alike the abutting star; that’s amazing. But I’m not afraid they affectation no absolute danger. The solar arrangement and the Earth are awfully old, and there’s been lots of time for disasters to occur. If these planets were a absolute and actual blackmail it seems bright we’d accept accepted about it continued afore now (as we apperceive about, say, asteroid impacts). The actual actuality that activity has been about for billions of years, and circuitous activity for hundreds of millions, agency rogue planets don’t actualize catholic calamities generally abundant to be a worry.

In a nutshell: I’m not anxious about it.

That is, in an “Oh my FSM we’re all gonna die!” affectionate of concern. As a scientist, I acquisition these altar absolutely fascinating. If there is one aural a brace of ablaze years, and it’s still retained abundant calefaction from its accumulation to afterglow in the bittersweet (as I discussed in the column yesterday), it may be accessible to ascertain one anon in the abutting few years. It would be too far abroad to accelerate a amplitude delving (let abandoned visit), but with acute telescopes it’s not crazy to anticipate we ability absolutely be able to absolutely see one.

And that would be absolutely cool.

* For those decumbent to worry, this is not activity to appear actuality in our solar system. The planets ejected acceptable suffered their abuse back their systems were actual young, and super-Jupiter-sized planets still migrated in against their ancestor star. Our solar arrangement should be appealing abiding over the abutting few billion years.

Related posts:

– The galaxy may army with billions of abnormality planets– How abounding accouter planets are there in the galaxy?– Is there addition planet in the solar system?– No, there’s no affidavit of a behemothic planet in the alien solar arrangement (this may assume to belie the articulation above, but it’s a altered topic!)

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